Intelligent Investment
New Index for the German Housing Market
CBRE-ToM (Time on Market) Index expands the analytical spectrum in Residential Research
13 November 2025 3 Minute Read
Against the backdrop of chronic supply shortages and persistently high demand in the German housing market, market participants need diverse indicators to measure market performance across different segments and submarkets. In addition to public statistics on existing stock and future supply (building permits and completions), CBRE also provides transaction data, rents, purchase prices, and the CBRE Vacancy Index in high granularity, published for market participants in the Germany Residential Market Report Q3 2025.
Until now, the analytical framework lacked a clear view of actual demand conditions in Germany—both at a national level and across individual cities and districts. Addressing this gap provides critical insights into areas with pronounced demand dynamics and market liquidity, as well as more accurate expectations for typical marketing periods.
With the new CBRE “Time on Market” Index, we close this gap. The CBRE-ToM Index shows the relative development of listing durations for rental and owner-occupied apartments on property portals. The data is based on a quarterly rolling aggregation and analysis of housing listings over the past twelve months, using Value AG data. On average, about 1.4 million rental and 260,000 owner-occupied apartment listings between 30 and 130 sq m have been evaluated each quarter since 2014. From this dataset, various sub-indices can be derived to examine regional and local differences or specific apartment sizes and qualities. For example, the Time on Market Index allows comparing the average marketing duration of rental apartments in central Berlin with similar properties in peripheral areas of the same city. This enables analysis of regional differences within a market and their temporal development. The CBRE ToM indices provide insights into how quickly apartments are actually being absorbed. A declining index may indicate rising demand at constant supply, while a sharp increase could point to higher supply due to regional developments or mismatched price expectations between sellers and buyers. Quarterly monitoring of listing durations allows changes in the supply-demand balance to be identified much faster than vacancy rates, which are published only annually and with a time lag.
The current ToM Index clearly shows that housing demand has continued to rise dramatically. Rental apartments remain on the market for an average of around 30 days—five days fewer than last year.
The ownership market is even more dynamic: owner-occupied apartments stay on the market for an average of 65 days, 27 days fewer than a year ago. The marketing duration for rental apartments has been at roughly the same level since mid-2018, suggesting that an absolute administrative minimum has been reached, leaving little room for further reduction despite declining vacancy rates. The marketing duration for owner-occupied apartments, however, has been influenced by changing financing conditions. The interest rate peak in 2024 caused a significant increase in marketing times, driven partly by new fixed-income investment alternatives. The current compression of marketing duration for owner-occupied apartments is due to a normalization of financing conditions, combined with expectations of rising rents and moderately increasing purchase prices.
The ToM Index thus provides valuable guidance for various market participants:
- Project developers can better assess which apartment types are in high demand and what marketing durations to expect, helping them tailor project planning more precisely to potential users.
- Investors and portfolio holders gain insights into market liquidity and potential risks, as well as orientation for vacancy periods and associated fluctuation costs in their cash-flow models.
- Cities and municipalities benefit from a deeper understanding of local housing demand, particularly in the context of urban planning.
By integrating the CBRE “Time on Market” Index into our standard analysis toolbox, we take another step toward data-driven market transparency.
Research Contacts
Jirka Stachen
Senior Director | Head of Research Consulting Continental Europe
Steffen Heinig
Senior Analyst
